Bitcoin may currently be experiencing a downtrend, but a fundamental analysis reveals that it is actually in a healthy position. According to crypto analyst Kaleo, Bitcoin is displaying healthier dynamics compared to its performance in the previous halving cycle. Despite the struggle to maintain stability above $54,000 and surpass the $57,000 mark, Bitcoin’s overall outlook remains positive.
Kaleo’s analysis, shared on social media platform X, compared Bitcoin’s current price performance post the April 2024 halving with its performance after the May 2020 halving. It has been 141 days since the last halving, and the current BTC price is still 19% below its all-time high of $69,434. While this might be seen as underperformance by some, Kaleo emphasizes that Bitcoin is actually holding up well.
After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin was down 46% from its 2018 top at a similar post-halving point. This historical context highlights Bitcoin’s stronger position today despite its struggles to break significantly above current levels. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $56,616.
The lack of sustained bullish momentum since August has led many crypto analysts to revise their optimistic predictions. Negative and bearish forecasts have become more common in the current market environment. However, Kaleo points to a similar sentiment following the 2020 halving, where doubts and negative predictions were prevalent. Eventually, Bitcoin bulls defied these predictions, propelling the cryptocurrency’s market cap above $1 trillion and sparking growth in altcoins and new sectors like NFTs.
Kaleo’s analysis suggests that despite the prevailing pessimism, history could repeat itself, leading Bitcoin to surpass market expectations once again. The analyst also highlights that the crypto ecosystem is now better equipped to support a stronger price surge. Institutional investors can now efficiently invest in BTC through Spot Bitcoin ETFs, and regulatory clarity within the crypto industry has significantly improved over the past four years.
Another analyst, Rekt Capital, has looked into previous halving cycles and suggested that if history repeats itself, the next Bitcoin breakout could happen in October. Historically, October has proven to be a strong month for Bitcoin, signaling the possibility of a significant price surge in the near future.
