President Joe Biden’s rumored withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race has led analysts to speculate on the potential outcomes, with 10x Research suggesting that former President Donald Trump may secure a “decisive victory” in the November election. The firm goes as far as stating that no credible candidate could seriously challenge Trump, essentially declaring the election as already decided before a single vote is cast. This shift in power dynamics has significant implications not only for the political landscape but also for the crypto industry.
At the forefront of these implications is the leadership of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 10x’s head of research, Markus Thielen, highlighted the historical pattern of SEC chair resignations during transitions between administrations. Thielen believes that under a Trump administration, current SEC Chair Gary Gensler may likely resign within the first two months of 2025, well before his term officially ends. The reasoning behind this prediction lies in the pro-crypto stance of the potential Trump administration, with Trump’s running mate previously criticizing Gensler as the “worst person” to regulate crypto due to his perceived backward approach to policy.
Should a pro-crypto administration take control, the narrative around digital assets and blockchain technology is expected to shift. Leadership changes at the SEC could bring about new perspectives and policies surrounding the oversight of cryptocurrencies, fostering a more favorable regulatory environment. This, in turn, is likely to fuel growth and innovation within the crypto industry, opening up opportunities for development and investment.
Potential Market Catalysts
Thielen also highlighted several bullish catalysts for the crypto market, including the potential launch of spot Ethereum ETFs and rumors of Trump making a surprise announcement at a Bitcoin conference in July 2024. Industry insiders speculate that Trump might endorse Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, addressing some of the regulatory challenges facing the industry. Such an announcement, if made, is predicted to trigger a “parabolic” rise in Bitcoin’s value, potentially surpassing previous all-time highs.
Current Market Performance
As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading near its previous all-time high of $68,300, with a slight increase in value over the past hours. The total crypto market is valued at $2.47 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 54.52%. These figures indicate a strong market presence for Bitcoin, with potential room for growth depending on external factors such as regulatory announcements and market sentiment.
President Biden’s potential withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race could have a significant impact on the crypto industry, particularly in terms of regulatory oversight and market sentiment. A Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance may lead to changes in leadership at the SEC and a more favorable regulatory framework for digital assets. Investors and industry players should closely monitor these developments for potential opportunities and risks in the evolving landscape of crypto.
