The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to notify asset managers applying for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) as early as next week. This news comes ahead of the January 10 deadline for the SEC to decide whether to approve the ETF application by Ark Invest and 21Shares. The potential approval of multiple ETF applications by January 10 has sparked speculation about its impact on the Bitcoin market.
Asset managers, including Black Rock, Van Eck, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Invesco, Valkyrie, and Fidelity, have recently updated their Bitcoin ETF filings with the SEC. Fidelity Investments, in particular, aims to attract investors by proposing the lowest sponsor fee at 0.39%. Invesco announced a 0.59% rate and offered a fee waiver for the first $5 billion in assets during the initial six months after launch. BlackRock, a leading asset manager, named Jane Street Capital and JP Morgan Securities as its authorized participants in its updated ETF application.
Positive Outlook for ETF Approvals
The latest report from Reuters adds optimism to the possibility of the SEC approving several ETF applications by January 10. Many speculate that the Bitcoin market will experience significant changes if the ETFs receive approval. However, options platform Greeks.live presents a different perspective on the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF on the cryptocurrency’s value. According to Greeks.live, the market has already priced in the potential ETF approval, and any positive development may not lead to significant price movement.
The options data analyzed by Greeks.live indicates a lack of volatility and decrease in implied volatility of options, suggesting that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF may not have a substantial impact on the price of Bitcoin. The reasoning behind this analysis is that the market’s expectation of how much an asset will move in the future, represented by implied volatility, has not increased in correlation with the potential ETF approval. Even with significant news on the horizon, the options IV on January 12, which is believed to be strongly correlated to the Bitcoin ETF, has decreased instead of increased.
Implications for the Bitcoin Market
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $42,154, reflecting a mere 0.4% increase in the past day. Although the price of Bitcoin has risen by over 150% this year, partly fueled by anticipation of a Bitcoin spot ETF, the lack of significant price movement suggests that the market may have already factored in the potential ETF approval.
While asset managers eagerly await news regarding the approval of their Bitcoin ETF applications, the market may not experience the anticipated price surges. The options data analysis by Greeks.live suggests that the market has already priced in the potential ETF approval, indicating that any positive development may not result in significant price movement. As investors continue to navigate the crypto market, it is essential to conduct thorough research and consider all risks involved with investing in ETFs and cryptocurrencies.